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Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, 2026
kalshi

What will the initial jobless claims be for the week ending July 25, 2026?

Volume:
$21,185

At least 190,000

 - Kalshi

At least 190,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 30, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 190,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,300
N/A
N/A
$1,868
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 195,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$979
N/A
N/A
$771
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 175,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$474
N/A
N/A
$452
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 180,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 185,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$33
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 210,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,889
N/A
N/A
$4,534
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 200,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,193
N/A
N/A
$3,038
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 205,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,578
N/A
N/A
$1,542
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 215,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,436
N/A
N/A
$1,550
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

Initial jobless claims measure the number of people applying for unemployment benefits during a specific week, reflecting labor market health. Tracking these claims helps economists and policymakers gauge economic stability and potential downturns. Higher-than-expected claims can signal rising unemployment and economic weakness.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the total number of initial jobless claims reported for the week ending July 25, 2026. Multiple markets exist with escalating claim thresholds from 175,000 to 215,000. Any market with a threshold that is met or exceeded by the actual claims data will resolve to Yes, while all others resolve to No. The outcome depends solely on whether the reported figure reaches or surpasses each specific threshold, with higher thresholds representing more severe labor market stress.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the weekly jobless claims market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the outcome of the weekly jobless claims market, along with 24-hour volume of $7,743. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different initial jobless claims figures for the week ending July 25, 2026, reflecting market expectations against recent economic trends.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or forward-looking view of economic conditions. While analysts may publish consensus estimates based on current data and models, traders in this market incorporate real-time information, sentiment, and expectations about future economic policy or shocks. This can lead to divergence, where the market implies higher or lower probabilities than traditional forecasts.

This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official initial jobless claims figure released for the week ending July 25, 2026, as reported by the relevant government agency. Traders should monitor major economic news sources for the official announcement.

Economic indicators such as advanced manufacturing data, service sector expansions, or unexpected shifts in unemployment rates could move this market. Additionally, geopolitical events, federal policy announcements, or sudden changes in consumer behavior may influence trader sentiment. Any data suggesting stronger or weaker labor market conditions will be closely watched by participants as resolution approaches.