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Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22, 2026
kalshi

What will the initial jobless claims be for the week ending August 22, 2026?

Volume:
$15,042

At least 200,000

 - Kalshi

At least 200,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 27, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 200,000

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,759
N/A
N/A
$1,547
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 190,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
$294
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 195,000

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 180,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 185,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 210,000

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,941
N/A
N/A
$3,963
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 215,000

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,157
N/A
N/A
$2,872
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 205,000

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,061
N/A
N/A
$2,353
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 220,000

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
$879
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 225,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$346
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 230,000

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$325
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

Initial jobless claims measure the number of people applying for unemployment benefits during a specific week, reflecting the health of the labor market and economic conditions. Tracking these claims helps economists and policymakers gauge the stability of employment and anticipate potential economic shifts. The data for the week ending August 22, 2026, will reveal whether job market disruptions during that period were significant enough to push claims above various thresholds.

Kalshi

This set of markets collectively evaluates whether initial jobless claims reported for the week ending August 22, 2026, meet or exceed various threshold levels ranging from 180,000 to 230,000. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, resolving to 'Yes' if the official figure equals or surpasses that threshold. The structure creates a tiered assessment, allowing participants to bet on different levels of labor market stress during that week. All markets share the same reporting date and underlying data source, with resolution contingent upon the final, seasonally adjusted figure released by the relevant government agency. The outcome for each threshold is binary—either met or not met—based on the single reported value for that week.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the weekly jobless claims market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $6,839 for the weekly jobless claims market. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22, 2026. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest betting activity and market sentiment, giving users a clear view of where the market stands at any moment.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced view of economic expectations, incorporating real-time data and trader sentiment. While analysts may provide a single forecast number, this market prices a range of possible outcomes, with the odds shifting based on emerging economic data, Federal Reserve signals, and broader market conditions. Traders may react faster to new information than analysts, potentially creating divergence between market odds and consensus forecasts.

This market resolves around Aug 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official initial jobless claims figure released for the week ending August 22, 2026, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor. Traders should watch for the official release and any subsequent revisions that might affect the confirmed outcome.

Key signals that could move this market include upcoming employment reports, economic indicators such as nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate revisions, Federal Reserve speeches on labor market conditions, and unexpected events like natural disasters or geopolitical developments that could affect hiring. Any data showing stronger or weaker labor market conditions than expected will shift trader sentiment and odds in this market as the resolution date approaches.