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Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, 2026
kalshi

What will the initial jobless claims be for the week ending August 15, 2026?

Volume:
$36,808

At least 205,000

 - Kalshi

At least 205,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 20, 2026

Closed: Aug 20, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 205,000

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,367
N/A
N/A
$4,320
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 200,000

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,533
N/A
N/A
$3,021
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 185,000

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,085
N/A
N/A
$1,085
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 190,000

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$917
N/A
N/A
$892
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 195,000

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$798
N/A
N/A
$786
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 180,000

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 230,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,311
N/A
N/A
$2,555
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 210,000

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,117
N/A
N/A
$3,567
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 215,000

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,486
N/A
N/A
$2,752
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 220,000

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,241
N/A
N/A
$1,186
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 225,000

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$927
N/A
N/A
$919
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

Initial jobless claims measure the number of people applying for unemployment benefits during a specific week, offering insight into employment trends and economic health. Tracking these claims helps analysts gauge the labor market's condition and anticipate potential economic shifts. The week ending August 15, 2026, will be closely watched to assess underlying employment dynamics.

Kalshi

This set of markets collectively evaluates the volume of initial jobless claims reported for the week ending August 15, 2026, with successive thresholds starting at 180,000 and increasing in increments of 5,000 up to 230,000. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the officially reported figure meets or exceeds its specific threshold, with higher thresholds representing progressively more stringent conditions. The structure allows participants to bet on various levels of labor market stress, reflecting a spectrum of possible economic outcomes for that week. All markets share the same reporting date and underlying data source, ensuring consistency across the range of outcome possibilities.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the weekly jobless claims market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $4,205 for the weekly jobless claims market. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, 2026, offering a visual snapshot of market sentiment and activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, aggregated view of market participants' expectations. While analysts may provide detailed economic models and projections, traders adjust prices based on real-time data, sentiment, and emerging economic indicators. This can lead to divergence, where this market prices a different probability than consensus analyst predictions, especially ahead of key economic releases or unexpected events.

This market resolves around Aug 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official initial jobless claims figure for the week ending August 15, 2026, as reported by the relevant government agency. Traders will see the market settle based on that verified number, with no further adjustment after the resolution date.

Key signals that could move this market include upcoming employment reports, economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI or consumer sentiment indices, geopolitical developments affecting labor markets, and any unexpected policy announcements from central banks. Major surprises in prior week revisions or significant media coverage of labor market trends can also cause rapid shifts in trader sentiment and market pricing before Aug 20, 2026.