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Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, 2026
kalshi

What will the initial jobless claims be for the week ending August 1, 2026?

Volume:
$28,683

At least 195,000

 - Kalshi

At least 195,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 6, 2026

Closed: Aug 6, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 195,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,636
N/A
N/A
$1,704
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 190,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,405
N/A
N/A
$1,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 185,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 175,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 180,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 200,000

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,121
N/A
N/A
$4,597
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 210,000

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,412
N/A
N/A
$3,984
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 205,000

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,779
N/A
N/A
$4,768
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 215,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$1,029
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the number of initial jobless claims reported for a specific week, reflecting the level of new unemployment applications filed during that period. It serves as an indicator of labor market health and economic conditions. Higher-than-expected claims can signal economic stress, while lower numbers may suggest stability or growth.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the reported initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, 2026, meet or exceed any of the specified thresholds ranging from 175,000 to 215,000. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, and if the actual claims data equals or surpasses any of these levels, the associated market will resolve to Yes. The structure allows participants to assess varying degrees of labor market weakness, with higher thresholds representing more severe conditions. All markets share the same reporting week and data source, ensuring consistency across outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the weekly jobless claims market on Kalshi tracks the current odds and price history for this economic indicator, along with 24-hour volume of $8,067. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the expected number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, 2026, giving users a real-time view of market sentiment and trading activity.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or forward-looking view of economic conditions. While analysts may publish their expectations based on models and recent trends, traders in this market incorporate real-time data, sentiment, and upcoming economic releases. This can lead to divergence, where the market price either aligns closely with consensus forecasts or deviates based on perceived risks or recent economic surprises.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous trading, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectations of participants. The chance percentage shown represents the implied probability of that outcome occurring, derived from the bids and offers in the market. Trading volume of $28,683 indicates the level of interest and liquidity among market participants.

This market resolves around Aug 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official government data is released and verified against credible public sources. The final number of initial jobless claims reported for the week ending August 1, 2026, will determine which market outcome is settled. Timing depends on the official publication schedule and data verification processes.

Key signals that could move this market include upcoming employment reports, economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI or consumer sentiment, geopolitical developments affecting labor markets, and any unexpected policy announcements from central banks. Traders will also watch for revisions to previous weeks' claims, which can shift expectations for the upcoming report and influence pricing in this market.