Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to different CPI YoY rates for September 2026. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific rate occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices that accurately reflect their beliefs, as they profit from correct predictions and lose money on incorrect ones. The market's efficiency stems from the diverse perspectives and information incorporated by numerous participants, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for September 2026, calculated as the year-over-year percentage change. The contract corresponding to the CPI YoY rate closest to the official figure will be settled as winning, and payouts will be distributed accordingly. Traders will know the outcome shortly after the official CPI data is published.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in energy prices, geopolitical events, or shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could all influence inflation expectations. Strong or weak economic data releases, such as employment reports or GDP growth figures, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, supply chain disruptions or unexpected changes in consumer demand could contribute to price fluctuations. Any news that alters perceptions of future inflation will likely cause movement in this market as traders adjust their positions.