TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Idaho Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Idaho Senate election?

Total volume:
$523,662
Volume 24h:
$23,739
1,139%
Liquidity:
$153,045
5%
Open interest:
$287,403
8%

Republican

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Time left: 20d:00h:23m

Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 95.4¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 136% 20 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Republican

Trade
95%
Yes 95.4¢No 4.8¢
0.2¢
$63,539
$94,548
0.13%
9%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
95%
Yes 94.7¢No 6¢
0.7¢
N/A
$152,724
5%
22%
$103,033
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
94.9%
Yes 95¢No 5.4¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.7¢
kalshi

Todd Achilles

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$169,476
11%
42%
$153,438
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Person A

Trade
4%
Yes 4.8¢No 96.8¢
1.6¢
$49,431
$27,476
0.04%
41%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
1%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
0.5¢
N/A
$59,612
0%
1%
$30,932
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$40,075
$19,825
0%
5%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Idaho U.S. Senate election, specifically whether the Republicans will win the race. Currently, the consensus probability of a Republican victory is 94.1%. This prediction aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve according to the winner of the election – inclusive of any run-offs – as reported by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or ultimately by official certification. Traders should watch the results following the election on January 4, 2027, to see how the market resolves.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket relies on election night calls from major news sources, while Kalshi focuses on the official swearing-in date of the elected Senator.Hero tip: Consider the potential for delays in certification or legal challenges that could create a discrepancy between the initial election results and the official swearing-in date. Focus on markets with the most liquid and clear resolution criteria.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the election as called by AP, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if no consensus. Focuses on the election result itself. "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether a candidate is sworn in as Senator. Focuses on the completion of the process, not just the election result. "If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The Idaho Senate market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate sworn in as U.S. Senator for the term beginning in 2027. A Republican party representative being sworn in resolves the market to Yes under one outcome, while a Democratic party representative being sworn in resolves it to Yes under another outcome. The resolution depends on the official swearing-in of the elected Senator for the specified term.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Idaho Senate election. It tracks the consensus view of traders across both platforms, showing how the probability of different outcomes shifts over time. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $523,662, with $23,075 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a dynamic, crowdsourced forecast for the Idaho Senate election, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This can lead to more accurate forecasts, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record in political forecasting, sometimes outperforming polls, particularly in identifying likely winners. However, it’s important to remember that both polls and this market are snapshots in time and subject to change.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules can all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Additionally, differing levels of information and interpretation among traders on each platform can lead to varied assessments of the same event. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? at 95.3%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? at 94.7%, illustrating this potential for divergence.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Idaho Senate election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. This market reflects a prediction of who will hold the Senate seat following the election, based on the collective intelligence of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi. The final result will be determined by the official count and any subsequent legal challenges.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected developments in the campaigns of key candidates could all shift the odds. Polling data releases, while often already factored into prices, can cause short-term fluctuations. Furthermore, any unforeseen events – such as scandals or major policy debates – could also influence trader sentiment and move the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding the evolving predictions for the Idaho Senate election.