TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 10:35 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Christina Bohannan will secure the Democratic Party's nomination for Iowa's 1st congressional district House seat in 2026. On Kalshi, Bohannan's nomination is priced at 98.0%, while Travis Terrell's nomination probability stands at 9.0%. The market resolves based on official Democratic Party nomination results for the IA-01 seat. Watch the 2026 Democratic primary election scheduled for November 3, 2026, which will determine the party's official nominee.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate trader expectations, insider information, and real-money incentives that polls may miss. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect dynamic beliefs about the actual outcome. For the IA-01 Democratic nominee race, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent polling can reveal whether traders expect a shift in voter sentiment or whether polling consensus is already priced in. Markets typically lead polls when new campaign developments or fundraising milestones emerge.
The IA-01 Democratic nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Democratic nominee selected for Iowa's 1st congressional district race. The market will settle once the Democratic Party formally designates or confirms its nominee through the primary process, convention, or other official party mechanism. Traders should monitor the Iowa Democratic Party's official announcements and state filing deadlines to anticipate resolution timing.
Key catalysts for the IA-01 Democratic nominee market include candidate announcements or withdrawals, primary debate performance, endorsements from party leaders or local figures, fundraising reports, and grassroots organizing milestones. Polling releases showing shifts in voter preference, media coverage of candidate viability, and turnout expectations in Iowa can also move odds significantly. Late-breaking campaign developments, scandals, or strategic pivots by candidates or party officials may trigger sharp repricing. Traders should monitor Iowa Democratic Party communications and candidate social media for real-time signals.
