TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$850
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 26, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream comparing end-of-period to start-of-period price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with a fixed 5:00 PM EDT checkpoint and multiple threshold-based binary outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Chainlink vs CF Benchmarks), time windows (4-hour range vs single 5 PM EDT snapshot), and resolution structures (binary directional vs 40 threshold-based binaries). This creates two entirely separate markets with no logical equivalence.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two distinct markets. Polymarket is a directional bet over 4 hours; Kalshi offers 40 independent price-level bets at 5 PM EDT only. Confirm which platform and resolution method matches your trading thesis before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single binary market resolving Up if HYPE/USD price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET, using Chainlink HYPE/USD oracle. Captures full 4-hour directional movement. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($19.9999–$58.9999). All markets snapshot at 5 PM EDT only, ignoring the 4-hour window. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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