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404,028

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Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Hyperliquid price be up on June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$230

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$46 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Hyperliquid (HYPE) price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 29, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 binary markets at different price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single directional market comparing end-of-period price to start-of-period price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different data sources (CF Benchmarks vs Chainlink), different measurement methodologies (absolute threshold at 5 PM vs directional change over 4-hour period), and different time references (5 PM EDT snapshot vs 4 PM–8 PM ET comparison). These differences create non-overlapping resolution criteria.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate event spaces. Kalshi's 40 markets are threshold-based absolute price bets at a single moment; Polymarket is a directional bet over a time range. Price could satisfy Kalshi thresholds without moving directionally on Polymarket, or vice versa. Cross-platform arbitrage is not straightforward.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 binary markets, each with a fixed price threshold. Resolution: Yes if CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds threshold. Thresholds range from $42.9999 to $81.9999 in ~$1 increments. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
  • Polymarket: Single directional market. Resolution: Up if Chainlink HYPE/USD price at 8:00 PM ET ≥ price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' HYPE-Dollar Real Time Index (HYPEUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement within a bounded timeframe, whereas spot prices represent current market value without directional bias. This market's odds reveal whether informed traders expect upward or downward pressure during the four-hour window, independent of absolute price levels. If odds are near 50–50, traders see roughly equal probability for either direction. Comparing these odds to technical levels, volatility forecasts, or recent momentum can help you gauge whether the market is pricing in expected catalysts or underestimating near-term moves.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market-making models, user bases, and liquidity depths, which naturally creates pricing spreads. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-book structure may attract institutional flow, while Polymarket's design draws retail and international participants. Differences in trading fees, settlement timing perception, and platform-specific incentives can also push odds apart. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage opportunities and helps you identify which platform's traders are more confident in a particular outcome.

Macro announcements, regulatory news, or major exchange updates affecting the broader crypto market can shift odds significantly. On-chain metrics, funding rates, and large liquidation cascades may signal directional pressure. Social sentiment shifts, competitor announcements, or ecosystem developments tied to the platform itself could also influence trader positioning. Volatility spikes in Bitcoin or Ethereum often ripple into altcoin markets, so monitoring broader crypto momentum is essential. Watch for any platform-specific governance votes or technical upgrades that might affect trader confidence in the near term.