TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$134

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
79¢
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$46 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Hyperliquid (HYPE) price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 15, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 granular binary contracts at different price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing end-of-period price to start-of-period price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different outcomes: Kalshi resolves based on absolute price thresholds at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks data, while Polymarket resolves based on relative price movement (start vs. end of 4:00–8:00 PM ET window) using Chainlink data. The time windows and data sources do not align.Hero tip: These markets are not interchangeable. Kalshi's 40 contracts are threshold-based snapshots at 5 PM EDT; Polymarket's single contract is a directional bet over a 4-hour period. Cross-platform arbitrage is risky due to source and timing mismatches. Confirm your data source preference before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds a specific price threshold at 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Thresholds range from $39.9999 to $78.9999 with overlapping ranges. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract resolving to Up if Hyperliquid price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to price at 4:00 PM ET, using Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream. Measures relative price movement, not absolute levels. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' HYPE-Dollar Real Time Index (HYPEUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the averaged price exceeds the designated strike level at exactly the specified time. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement over a defined timeframe, whereas spot prices represent current market value. This market isolates a four-hour trading window, allowing traders to express views on intraday momentum independent of longer-term valuations. When odds lean heavily toward one outcome, it often signals elevated conviction among sophisticated traders. However, spot price and prediction odds can diverge if market microstructure, volatility spikes, or news events create temporary dislocations between what traders expect to happen and what the underlying asset is currently priced at.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates with distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different risk tolerances, time horizons, or information sets. Arbitrage friction—including withdrawal delays, platform-specific trading costs, and regulatory constraints—can prevent instant price convergence. Additionally, differences in market depth and order-book dynamics mean that large trades on one platform may move prices differently than on the other, especially in lower-volume windows.

Major crypto market moves, Bitcoin or Ethereum volatility spikes, and platform-specific news about Hyperliquid's ecosystem can shift odds significantly. Regulatory announcements, exchange listings, or protocol updates may trigger directional conviction among traders. Macro events—such as Federal Reserve decisions or broader risk-on/risk-off sentiment—often drive correlated moves across altcoins. Technical levels and order-book imbalances visible on exchanges can also influence prediction market pricing as traders front-run or hedge anticipated price action. Real-time social media sentiment and derivatives funding rates may serve as leading indicators for short-term momentum.