TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$91

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
11¢
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$46 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 13, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets at different price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single comparative market measuring price change from open to close of the window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ fundamentally different resolution mechanics: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds measured at a single point in time (5 PM EDT) via CF Benchmarks, while Polymarket measures relative price change over the full 4-hour window using Chainlink. The data sources, timing, and outcome logic are incompatible.Hero tip: These are two distinct markets with different underlying mechanics. Kalshi's 40 threshold markets all hinge on a single 60-second average at 5 PM EDT (which is mid-window, not end-of-window). Polymarket's comparative market measures the full 4-hour move. A price that rises from 4 PM to 5 PM but falls by 8 PM could resolve Yes on Kalshi but Down on Polymarket. Choose your platform based on your directional thesis and time horizon.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 binary markets, each with a discrete price threshold. Resolution: Yes if CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds threshold (range $37.9999–$76.9999). All markets reference 5 PM EDT settlement, which is 1 hour into the 4-hour window. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single comparative market measuring price change over the full 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Resolution: Up if Chainlink HYPE/USD price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Uses Chainlink data stream as authoritative source. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI over 60 seconds prior to 5 PM EDT on June 13, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, and resolution occurs if the averaged price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. The official and final value is calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration. Cryptocurrency price data varies by source; CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative source for this market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader expectations about price direction over a discrete four-hour interval, distinct from spot price levels at any single moment. These odds incorporate volatility forecasts, order-flow sentiment, and event-driven catalysts that may influence the token during that window. Spot price expectations are typically backward-looking or based on technical levels, whereas this market prices forward-looking directional conviction. The spread between up and down odds reveals net positioning: a wide gap suggests strong consensus, while near-parity indicates genuine uncertainty among participants.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, user bases, and liquidity pools, so identical events can trade at different odds temporarily. Kalshi and Polymarket may attract traders with different risk tolerances, time horizons, or information sets. Arbitrage opportunities arise when one platform prices the outcome higher than the other, but transaction costs and withdrawal friction can prevent instant convergence. Platform-specific rules, fee structures, and settlement mechanics also influence how traders price directional conviction, creating natural price discovery variation across venues.

Major catalysts include protocol announcements, regulatory news affecting Hyperliquid or the broader crypto sector, and macroeconomic events during the trading window. On-chain metrics such as large liquidations, funding rate spikes, or unusual volume patterns can shift trader conviction sharply. Competing token movements or Bitcoin volatility often correlate with altcoin directional bias. Social sentiment, exchange listings, or partnership news could trigger rapid repricing. As the June 13 window approaches, intraday technical levels and order-book imbalances will increasingly influence odds, with late-breaking news potentially causing last-minute swings in this market's pricing.