TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Hyperliquid be up on July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$3,741

$66 or above

 - Kalshi

$66 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,408
N/A
N/A
$604
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$483
N/A
N/A
$381
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$865
N/A
N/A
$457
Settled
No
kalshi

$68 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$569
N/A
N/A
$481
Settled
No
kalshi

$69 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
$85
Settled
No
kalshi

$70 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

$74 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

$75 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 8, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 binary contracts at $1 price increments from $49.9999 to $88.9999, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing end-of-period price to start-of-period price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different measurement times (5 PM EDT vs. end of 4–8 PM ET window), different data sources (CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI vs. Chainlink HYPE/USD), and different resolution logic (absolute price thresholds vs. directional change). These differences create potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Before the event, clarify with Polymarket whether end-of-window means exactly 8:00 PM ET or some other timestamp. Monitor both CF Benchmarks and Chainlink price feeds in real time. If you hold positions on both platforms, note that Kalshi's absolute levels and Polymarket's directional logic may diverge; a price that satisfies one platform's criteria may not satisfy the other's.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Offers 40 binary contracts at $1 increments ($49.9999–$88.9999). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds the contract's threshold. Measurement point: exactly 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Data source: CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI.
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract: resolves Up if Hyperliquid price at end of 4:00–8:00 PM ET >= price at start of 4:00 PM ET. Measurement: directional comparison over the full 4-hour window. Data source: Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream. End-of-window timestamp not explicitly specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI over a 60-second window immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds the stated criterion at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rule sets, liquidity pools, and user bases. Kalshi and Polymarket may define the event window or price source slightly differently, or one venue may attract more informed traders on this particular outcome. Liquidity depth also varies—a thin market on one platform can spike odds higher or lower than a deeper book elsewhere. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but friction costs and settlement risk prevent instant convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals where conviction is strongest and where pricing inefficiencies may exist.

Major crypto market moves, Bitcoin or Ethereum volatility, and Hyperliquid-specific announcements (partnerships, product launches, or governance votes) can shift odds sharply. Macro events—Federal Reserve decisions, regulatory news, or broad risk-on/risk-off sentiment—often drive altcoin momentum. On-chain metrics like trading volume, liquidation cascades, or whale accumulation may signal directional bias. Social media momentum and derivatives funding rates can also telegraph trader positioning. Close to the July 8 window, intraday technical levels and order book imbalances become more predictive. Watch for news and exchange data in the hours before the market opens.