TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Hyperliquid be up on July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$4,272

$69 or above

 - Kalshi

$69 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$69 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$611
N/A
N/A
$407
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$549
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,163
N/A
N/A
$354
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$587
N/A
N/A
$151
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$519
N/A
N/A
$149
Settled
No
polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$328
N/A
N/A
$59
Settled
No
kalshi

$75 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 7, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create incompatible resolution paths. Kalshi uses a single 60-second CF Benchmarks snapshot at 5 PM EDT with 40 price tiers; Polymarket uses Chainlink HYPE/USD price comparison across the full 4:00–8:00 PM ET window.Hero tip: These are separate markets with different underlying data and timing. Kalshi's 5 PM snapshot does not directly measure the 4:00–8:00 PM ET price movement that Polymarket tracks. CF Benchmarks and Chainlink may report different prices. Treat them as independent positions, not hedges.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average at exactly 5 PM EDT on Jul 7, 2026. Offers 40 binary Yes/No outcomes, each tied to a price threshold from $49.9999 to $88.9999 (increments of $1). Resolution is Yes if the snapshot average exceeds the threshold; No otherwise. Key Quote: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 7, 2026.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream to compare opening price at 4:00 PM ET to closing price at 8:00 PM ET on Jul 7, 2026. Resolves to 'Up' if closing price >= opening price; 'Down' if closing price < opening price. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 7, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for accurate price determination.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about directional movement, not necessarily the current spot price or technical analysis. When this market shows strong conviction toward up or down, it signals collective expectation of momentum during the four-hour window, independent of where Hyperliquid trades at market open. Spot price and prediction odds can diverge because traders factor in volatility, order flow, news catalysts, and macro sentiment. A rising spot price doesn't guarantee upside odds in this market; traders may anticipate profit-taking or reversals. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd expects continuation or mean reversion.

Both platforms host the same underlying question, yet their odds can diverge due to differences in user base, liquidity depth, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-book structure may attract institutional traders with longer time horizons, while Polymarket's design appeals to retail crypto-native participants trading on shorter cycles. Liquidity imbalances, regional access restrictions, and fee structures also influence where traders concentrate their capital. Arbitrage opportunities emerge when the spread widens, incentivizing traders to balance prices across venues over time.

Macro crypto sentiment, Bitcoin or Ethereum volatility, and Hyperliquid-specific announcements (product launches, partnerships, governance votes) are primary catalysts. Regulatory news affecting the broader exchange or derivatives market can shift odds sharply. On-chain metrics—such as large liquidations, funding rate spikes, or unusual whale activity—often precede directional moves and influence trader positioning. Market-wide risk-off events (equity selloffs, Fed announcements) tend to pressure altcoins, while positive sentiment around DeFi or perpetual trading can drive upside. Monitoring these signals helps traders refine their conviction as the window approaches.