TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Hyperliquid be up on July 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET?

Volume:
$3,150

$67 or above

 - Kalshi

$67 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$829
N/A
N/A
$307
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
98¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,061
N/A
N/A
$396
Settled
No
kalshi

$69 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
kalshi

$70 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 10, 2026, from 4:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET. Two platforms offer markets on this directional price movement, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental structural divergence: Kalshi resolves on a single price snapshot from July 9 at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI, while Polymarket resolves on a price comparison within the July 10, 4:00 AM-8:00 AM ET window using Chainlink HYPE/USD. These measure different time periods, different data sources, and different resolution logic (absolute threshold vs. directional comparison).Hero tip: Do not cross-hedge these markets. Kalshi's resolution occurs one day before Polymarket's event window and uses a different oracle entirely. A Yes on Kalshi (price above threshold on July 9) tells you nothing about whether Polymarket will resolve Up or Down on July 10. Treat them as independent markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026 (one day before the event title window). Provides 40 binary Yes/No markets at tiered price thresholds ($46.9999 through $85.9999). Resolution is absolute: if the average exceeds the threshold, Yes; otherwise No. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves on Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream comparing price at end of July 10, 8:00 AM ET to price at beginning of July 10, 4:00 AM ET. Binary Up/Down outcome: Up if end >= start, Down otherwise. Resolution is directional and relative, not absolute. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI over 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds that threshold at the specified time. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for HYPE.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price movement, not current spot price. While spot markets price the asset's value right now, this market prices the probability of directional movement within a defined timeframe. Traders on prediction platforms often incorporate technical analysis, volatility expectations, and upcoming catalysts into their odds. A high probability for an up move doesn't guarantee the spot price will rise; it signals aggregated trader belief. Comparing these odds to your own spot price outlook helps identify whether prediction markets are pricing in events or sentiment you expect or disagree with.

Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader bases, liquidity profiles, and rule interpretations, which can create price gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, user interface, and settlement clarity influence how traders price risk. Polymarket may draw more institutional or retail flow depending on its promotional focus, while Kalshi operates under its own market mechanics. Arbitrage traders exploit these spreads, but temporary divergence persists due to fragmented liquidity. Monitoring both platforms reveals where conviction is strongest and where uncertainty creates opportunity.