TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HYPE Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

HYPE Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET

Volume:
$1,668

$36 to 36.9999

 - Kalshi

$36 to 36.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 31, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$36 to 36.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HYPE Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 to 54.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$180
N/A
N/A
$130
Settled
No
kalshi

$56 to 56.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
$158
Settled
No
kalshi

$21 to 21.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
No
kalshi

$20 to 20.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
No
kalshi

$19 to 19.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
No
kalshi

$57 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

$52 to 52.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

$53 to 53.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
No
kalshi

$22 to 22.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
No
kalshi

$55 to 55.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
No
kalshi

$23 to 23.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

$18.9999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
No
kalshi

$35 to 35.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

$37 to 37.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

$38 to 38.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

$32 to 32.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

$33 to 33.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$34 to 34.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$45 to 45.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$46 to 46.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$47 to 47.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$48 to 48.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$49 to 49.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether HYPE token price moves up or down on March 31, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average price across 36 discrete price bands. The two platforms measure fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT futures vs CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI), measurement methodologies (1-hour candle open/close vs 60-second average), and resolution structures (binary directional vs 36-band price lottery). Markets will not resolve identically.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a pure directional bet; Kalshi is heavily skewed toward YES (36 YES bands vs 2 NO outcomes). Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful tracking of both data feeds independently. Confirm which benchmark your counterparties are using before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single data source: Binance futures HYPE/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Price-band lottery with 36 YES outcomes. Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second simple average falls within any of these bands: $19-$19.99, $20-$20.99, $21-$21.99, $22-$22.99, $23-$23.99, $24-$24.99, $25-$25.99, $26-$26.99, $27-$27.99, $28-$28.99, $29-$29.99, $30-$30.99, $31-$31.99, $32-$32.99, $33-$33.99, $34-$34.99, $35-$35.99, $36-$36.99, $37-$37.99, $38-$38.99, $39-$39.99, $40-$40.99, $41-$41.99, $42-$42.99, $43-$43.99, $44-$44.99, $45-$45.99, $46-$46.99, $47-$47.99, $48-$48.99, $49-$49.99, $50-$50.99, $51-$51.99, $52-$52.99, $53-$53.99, $54-$54.99, $55-$55.99, $56-$56.99, or above $56.99. Resolves NO only if price is below $19.00. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is between [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.