TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether HYPE token price moves up or down on March 31, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average price across 36 discrete price bands. The two platforms measure fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT futures vs CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI), measurement methodologies (1-hour candle open/close vs 60-second average), and resolution structures (binary directional vs 36-band price lottery). Markets will not resolve identically.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a pure directional bet; Kalshi is heavily skewed toward YES (36 YES bands vs 2 NO outcomes). Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful tracking of both data feeds independently. Confirm which benchmark your counterparties are using before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single data source: Binance futures HYPE/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Price-band lottery with 36 YES outcomes. Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second simple average falls within any of these bands: $19-$19.99, $20-$20.99, $21-$21.99, $22-$22.99, $23-$23.99, $24-$24.99, $25-$25.99, $26-$26.99, $27-$27.99, $28-$28.99, $29-$29.99, $30-$30.99, $31-$31.99, $32-$32.99, $33-$33.99, $34-$34.99, $35-$35.99, $36-$36.99, $37-$37.99, $38-$38.99, $39-$39.99, $40-$40.99, $41-$41.99, $42-$42.99, $43-$43.99, $44-$44.99, $45-$45.99, $46-$46.99, $47-$47.99, $48-$48.99, $49-$49.99, $50-$50.99, $51-$51.99, $52-$52.99, $53-$53.99, $54-$54.99, $55-$55.99, $56-$56.99, or above $56.99. Resolves NO only if price is below $19.00. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is between [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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