TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - March 30, 5PM ET
Volume:
$5,082
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle open/close comparison on Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 37 distinct price thresholds. The markets measure the same underlying asset but employ fundamentally different methodologies, data sources, and resolution mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT futures candle vs. CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI index), incompatible measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and incompatible resolution logic (binary direction vs. 37 price-level thresholds). A price movement that resolves Up on Polymarket may not trigger any Kalshi threshold, and vice versa.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve in lockstep. Polymarket's binary Up outcome (close >= open) is independent of Kalshi's index-based thresholds. Monitor both data sources separately: Binance HYPE/USDT 1H candle for Polymarket, and CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average for Kalshi. Basis risk and source divergence are material.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT futures pair. Resolves Up if the 1-hour candle close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the candle beginning at March 30, 5 PM ET. Otherwise resolves Down. Single data source: Binance futures graph display. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 37 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI index exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from $18.9999 to $57.9999) at exactly 5 PM EDT on March 30, 2026. No single binary outcome; instead, a ladder of independent Yes/No outcomes. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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