TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
HYPE Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

HYPE Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

Volume:
$151

HYPE Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

HYPE Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

HYPE Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$151
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$46 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on June 14, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average price at a specific threshold. The two platforms measure different price sources and employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible price sources (Binance HYPE/USDT vs CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI), measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs 60-second average), and resolution structures (binary directional vs 40 threshold-based conditions). A single price movement will resolve differently on each platform.Hero tip: These are two distinct markets with different underlying data feeds and resolution logic. Polymarket resolves to a single binary outcome (Up or Down). Kalshi resolves to 40 separate Yes/No outcomes based on price thresholds. Confirm your platform choice and data source before entering a position. Cross-platform arbitrage is not viable here.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional bet on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price, DOWN otherwise. Single binary outcome. Data source: Binance futures HYPE/USDT pair. Measurement: open and close of the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 14.
  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary conditions on CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI. Each condition tests whether the 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $37.9999 to $76.9999). Each threshold is a separate Yes/No market. Data source: CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the HYPE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance HYPE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold starting at $38 and incrementing by $1 up to $77. An outcome resolves to Yes if the averaged price exceeds its threshold. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for HYPE.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price direction, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk hedging. Spot prices reflect only immediate supply and demand, while this market prices in catalysts, volatility, and macro conditions expected between now and resolution. When prediction odds move sharply away from spot, it signals traders are positioning for moves the current market may not yet reflect, making odds a leading indicator of directional bias.

Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to differences in liquidity depth, user base composition, and settlement rule interpretation. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders on one platform may have stronger conviction or different risk tolerances, causing odds to drift. Arbitrage opportunities emerge when the spread widens; sophisticated traders exploit these gaps by taking opposing positions across venues until prices converge, making the spread itself a signal of market inefficiency.

Major catalysts include protocol announcements, regulatory developments, macro crypto sentiment shifts, and exchange listings or delistings. Correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum often drives altcoin directional moves, so broad market rallies or selloffs can swing this market sharply. Social media momentum, developer updates, and partnership news are also tracked by traders positioning ahead of the resolution date, making real-time monitoring of on-chain and off-chain signals essential for active participants.