TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HYPE Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will HYPE/USDT close up or flat on July 11 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$1,178

$65 or above

 - Kalshi

$65 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$65 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
$214
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$212
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HYPE Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$37
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$511
N/A
N/A
$305
Settled
No
kalshi

$69 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
$123
Settled
No
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on July 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average price across 27 discrete price thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms measure HYPE price using different sources, aggregation methods, and resolution logic at the same timestamp, creating independent resolution paths that may produce conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate, non-hedgeable markets. Polymarket resolves on Binance 1H candle direction; Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks 60-second average against 27 price levels. Price discrepancies between Binance and CF Benchmarks, or timing misalignment in data finalization, could cause one platform to resolve Up while Kalshi resolves No at lower thresholds or Yes at higher ones. Monitor both feeds independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market: Up if HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open on Binance futures. Down otherwise. Uses official Binance HYPE/USDT pair data. Single outcome per resolution event.
  • Kalshi: 27 separate price-level markets: Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks HYPEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($47.9999 through $86.9999). Multiple independent Yes/No outcomes possible simultaneously.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the HYPE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance HYPE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' HYPE-Dollar Real Time Index (HYPEUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

The HYPE token price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether the token will move up or down by July 11, 5PM ET. Both venues host identical outcome structures, allowing you to compare odds and volume across leading prediction platforms. This market reflects collective expectations from thousands of traders positioning ahead of the event window, with total volume of $1,178 across both venues. The dashboard consolidates these signals into a single view, helping traders gauge market sentiment and identify pricing discrepancies between platforms.

Prediction market odds represent trader consensus on directional movement, distinct from spot price levels. While spot markets reflect current exchange rates, this market isolates the probability of upward or downward price action within a defined timeframe. Traders use prediction markets to hedge spot exposure or express conviction on short-term momentum independent of absolute price. The odds here aggregate thousands of individual bets, often revealing sentiment shifts before they appear in traditional price charts. 24-hour volume of $1,080 shows active participation, signaling confidence in the outcome probabilities displayed.

Major catalysts include project announcements, regulatory developments, broader crypto market momentum, and macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite. Whale transactions, exchange inflows or outflows, and social media sentiment spikes often precede price moves and shift prediction odds. Technical levels and support/resistance zones can trigger algorithmic trading, amplifying directional conviction. Partnership news or protocol updates specific to HYPE could reshape trader expectations. Watch for correlated asset movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as altcoin prices often follow broader market cycles. Real-time volume surges on this market itself signal shifting consensus as new information emerges.