TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET
Volume:
$176
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 4, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison (open vs. close) from Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 40 discrete price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible measurement methodologies and data sources. Polymarket resolves on a single 1-hour candle open/close comparison from Binance; Kalshi resolves on 40 independent price-level thresholds using a 60-second CF Benchmarks average. No logical bridge exists between them.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi outcomes are correlated. Polymarket's binary Up/Down is a technical candle pattern; Kalshi's thresholds are absolute price levels. A Polymarket Up (close >= open) could occur at any price level, and may or may not trigger any specific Kalshi threshold. Verify the data source you trust: Binance futures (Polymarket) or CF Benchmarks index (Kalshi).Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle comparison. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at April 4, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance futures only. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a specific price threshold ($14.9999 through $53.9999). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Source: CF Benchmarks index. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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