TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 2, 5PM ET
Volume:
$844
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 2, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average price at a specific threshold. The markets measure price direction but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure different price metrics (Binance 1H candle open/close vs CF Benchmarks 60-second UHYPEUSDRTI average) and use incompatible resolution structures (binary direction vs 32 threshold levels). This creates potential for conflicting outcomes despite the same timestamp.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance futures candle data; Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks index. Cross-exchange price divergence is common. Confirm the actual CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI feed and Binance candle data independently before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary direction market: Resolves UP if HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price on Binance futures at 5 PM ET April 2, 2026. Otherwise DOWN. Data source: Binance HYPE/USDT futures pair. Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 32 separate threshold markets: Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second simple average (calculated before 5 PM EDT) exceeds a specific price level ($16.9999 through $55.9999). Data source: CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI index. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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