TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 16, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the HYPE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance HYPE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket resolves on Binance HYPE/USDT 1H candle open vs. close comparison, while Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average at specific price thresholds. These are different assets, different data sources, and different resolution mechanics that will produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge these markets. A position on Polymarket (Up/Down directional bet) cannot be reliably offset by a Kalshi position (price level binary). Polymarket's outcome depends on intracandle volatility and exact open/close prices on Binance futures; Kalshi's outcome depends on a CF Benchmarks spot index average. The same HYPE price movement could resolve opposite ways on each platform.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if Binance HYPE/USDT 1H candle close >= open; DOWN otherwise. Uses futures pair data from a single exchange. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.' Source: Binance HYPE/USDT futures.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average exceeds any of 40 distinct price thresholds ($22.99 through $61.99) at 5 PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026. Uses a spot index benchmark, not futures, and resolves on absolute price levels, not directional comparison. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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