TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HYPE Up or Down - April 13, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

HYPE Up or Down - April 13, 5PM ET

Volume:
$473

$31 or above

 - Kalshi

$31 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 14, 2026

Closed: Apr 13, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$31 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$266
N/A
N/A
$265
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HYPE Up or Down - April 13, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$30 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$26 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$20 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$21 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$22 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$23 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$24 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$25 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$27 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$28 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$29 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$32 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$33 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$34 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$35 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$36 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$37 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
No
kalshi

$48 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
No
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the HYPE/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on April 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance futures data (open vs close comparison), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 27 distinct price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources and resolution methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT vs CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI), different calculation methods (candle open/close comparison vs 60-second average), and different resolution structures (single binary vs 27 price-level thresholds). This creates basis risk and prevents direct cross-platform arbitrage.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different underlying assets and mechanics. Polymarket is a directional bet (up or down); Kalshi offers price-level exposure. Monitor both Binance and CF Benchmarks data feeds independently. If they diverge on April 13, 2026, one or both markets may resolve unexpectedly. Consider hedging across platforms only if you understand the basis risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution. Resolves UP if Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; otherwise DOWN. Uses exchange-provided OHLC data. Single outcome per market. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 27 separate Yes/No markets, each with a distinct price threshold. All resolve YES if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average (before 5 PM EDT) exceeds the specified threshold; otherwise NO. Thresholds range from $19.9999 to $58.9999. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.