TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 13, 5PM ET
Volume:
$473
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on April 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance futures data (open vs close comparison), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 27 distinct price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources and resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT vs CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI), different calculation methods (candle open/close comparison vs 60-second average), and different resolution structures (single binary vs 27 price-level thresholds). This creates basis risk and prevents direct cross-platform arbitrage.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different underlying assets and mechanics. Polymarket is a directional bet (up or down); Kalshi offers price-level exposure. Monitor both Binance and CF Benchmarks data feeds independently. If they diverge on April 13, 2026, one or both markets may resolve unexpectedly. Consider hedging across platforms only if you understand the basis risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution. Resolves UP if Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; otherwise DOWN. Uses exchange-provided OHLC data. Single outcome per market. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 27 separate Yes/No markets, each with a distinct price threshold. All resolve YES if CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average (before 5 PM EDT) exceeds the specified threshold; otherwise NO. Thresholds range from $19.9999 to $58.9999. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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