TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of the cryptocurrency HYPE on a specific date and time, dividing possible outcomes into narrow price bands. Each band represents a distinct range of prices that, if the average falls within, determines the resolution of that particular outcome.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. Each numbered rule corresponds to a specific price range, and the market resolves to 'Yes' for the rule whose range contains this average price. The official price is derived exclusively from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the final value determined by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. All rules share this mechanism, ensuring consistency across all price bands—from $63.9999 or below up to $112 or above—with each consecutive rule defining a distinct, non-overlapping price interval.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes. In this market, the price represents the probability-weighted average of all possible HYPE prices on the specified date. This differs from traditional polls or analyst forecasts, which may be based on limited data or individual biases. The aggregated view from this market provides a real-time assessment of expectations, driven by individuals with skin in the game. It’s a forward-looking indicator, incorporating new information as it becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for HYPE. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market operates similarly to a futures market, allowing traders to speculate on the future price of HYPE. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the most likely outcome, providing a dynamic and efficient price discovery mechanism.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the HYPE price at 5pm EDT on September 25, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a publicly available and widely recognized source for HYPE pricing data. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual price. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, based on established data points.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news announcements related to HYPE, such as partnerships, technological breakthroughs, or regulatory changes, could all cause price fluctuations. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, including shifts in investor sentiment or macroeconomic conditions, will also play a role. Unexpected events, like security breaches or significant network upgrades, could also move the market. Monitoring these signals and understanding their potential impact is crucial for informed trading in this market.