TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of the HYPE cryptocurrency at a specific moment, determining the outcome based on where it falls within a range of predefined brackets. The evaluation occurs at a fixed time, using a standardized method to calculate the average price over the final minute before expiration.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market that matches the calculated average price at that moment resolves to 'Yes,' with all others resolving to 'No.' The official price is derived from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the final value being the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. This methodology ensures consistency and objectivity in determining the outcome, as not all cryptocurrency price data sources are identical, and CF Benchmarks' RTI is the designated source for this event.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices are influenced by immediate supply and demand, this market incorporates a broader range of factors, including anticipated news, regulatory changes, and overall market sentiment leading up to September 18, 2026. The collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi can sometimes anticipate price movements before they are reflected in spot markets, offering a unique insight into future price discovery. This is because traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the HYPE price range. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability distribution of potential outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions as new information becomes available, leading to a dynamic and responsive price discovery process. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants in the market.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the HYPE price at 5pm EDT on September 18, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be determined by a publicly available and authoritative source for cryptocurrency pricing data. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual HYPE price at the specified time. The market's resolution ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major news regarding HYPE’s technology, partnerships, or adoption rate would likely have a substantial impact. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrencies, particularly those impacting HYPE specifically, could also cause price fluctuations. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, and overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market will play a role. Unexpected security breaches or significant developments from competing cryptocurrencies could also influence trading activity in this market.