TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of HYPE cryptocurrency on July 2, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index. The market resolves based on which price band the simple average of 60 seconds of pricing data falls into.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' HYPE-Dollar Real Time Index (HYPEUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the averaged price at exactly the specified time. While external sources like Google or Coinbase may provide reference prices, the official resolution uses only CF Benchmarks' RTI data. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on specific price outcomes, whereas spot prices represent current market rates on exchanges. This market aggregates forward-looking expectations from participants who profit only if their prediction proves correct, creating a financial incentive for accuracy. Unlike casual polls or analyst forecasts, prediction markets penalize poor judgment with real losses, often producing sharper signals about where informed traders expect HYPE to trade. Comparing the odds here to current spot prices and analyst consensus can reveal whether the market is pricing in bullish, bearish, or neutral sentiment relative to today's valuation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for different price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders compete to set the odds, and the platform matches orders in real time, with the current mid-price reflecting the consensus between the highest bid and lowest ask. Each price range contract trades independently, allowing you to isolate your view on whether HYPE will settle within a specific band. Tighter spreads indicate higher confidence and liquidity, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty or lower trading activity.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed by verifying the HYPE price against credible public sources. Once the event occurs and the price is established, the contract settles to reflect whether the actual price fell within the predicted range. Traders who correctly anticipated the outcome receive their winnings, while those on the wrong side of the trade realize losses. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on widely available market data.
Major catalysts for HYPE price movement include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency markets, shifts in broader crypto sentiment, platform updates or partnerships, macroeconomic events influencing risk appetite, and changes in on-chain activity or adoption metrics. Technical developments, exchange listings, or significant whale transactions can also trigger rapid repricing. Traders in this market monitor news flow, social sentiment, and competing assets to adjust their bids and offers. Unexpected volatility in Bitcoin or Ethereum often spills into altcoin markets, potentially reshaping expectations around where HYPE will settle by the deadline.