TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific cryptocurrency, HYPE, by measuring its price against various thresholds at a set time. The outcome depends on whether the averaged price during the final minute before expiration meets or exceeds one of the defined price points.
The event evaluates whether the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 18, 2026, exceeds sequentially increasing price thresholds from $54.9999 to $103.9999. Each threshold corresponds to a separate market outcome labeled Yes or No. The official price is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected in the last minute before expiration. All markets share this methodology, with each threshold representing a distinct price level that must be surpassed for the respective market to resolve to Yes. The secondary rules clarify that CF Benchmarks' RTI is the definitive source, distinguishing it from other potential price references such as Google or Coinbase.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional spot price expectations, as they incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting. This market, specifically, allows traders to express their beliefs about the future price of HYPE, potentially factoring in news, technical analysis, and subjective assessments not fully captured in current spot prices. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions about future events, risk tolerance, or simply the wisdom of the crowd effect. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and the price adjusts based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual HYPE price at the specified time will be above or below the current market price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. The closer to the resolution date, the more the price will likely converge towards the expected outcome, but volatility can remain high until then.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of HYPE at 5:00 PM EDT on September 18, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source. Traders will be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the final price. It's important to monitor news and developments related to HYPE leading up to the resolution date, as these factors could significantly influence the final price and the market outcome.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major news announcements regarding HYPE, such as partnerships, technological breakthroughs, or regulatory changes, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, including shifts in investor sentiment or macroeconomic conditions, could also play a role. Unexpected events, like security breaches or significant network upgrades, could also move the market. Monitoring social media, industry publications, and official HYPE announcements will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts.