TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific cryptocurrency, HYPE, by monitoring its price against a series of escalating thresholds at a precise moment in time. The outcome depends on whether the price meets or exceeds any of these predefined levels, reflecting potential market movements and investor sentiment around that date.
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for the cryptocurrency HYPE, all assessed at the same moment: 5 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome, resolved if the simple average of sixty Real Time Index (RTI) price readings from CF Benchmarks in the final minute before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific value. For instance, the lowest threshold resolves if the average exceeds $60.9999, while higher thresholds require progressively higher averages, up to $109.9999 for the highest tier. The official price is derived exclusively from CF Benchmarks' RTI data, averaging sixty readings captured in the last minute before expiration to ensure precision. All markets share this unified methodology, with outcomes determined solely by whether the calculated average crosses their respective threshold, thus creating a tiered resolution structure where only the first met threshold applies.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the HYPE price that may differ from those found in traditional spot price expectations. This market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in conventional financial analysis. Discrepancies can arise due to varying risk appetites, access to information, or differing interpretations of future events. Observing how this market evolves can provide insights into the wisdom of the crowd and its divergence from established price forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the HYPE price on September 11, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution for the possible outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can take either the 'buy' (long) or 'sell' (short) side, aiming to profit from correctly anticipating market movements. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the HYPE price at 5pm EDT on September 11, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely recognized and publicly available source for HYPE pricing data. The market will then pay out to traders based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual HYPE price at the specified time. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency landscape, such as regulatory changes, technological breakthroughs, or shifts in institutional investment, could all impact the perceived value of HYPE. News regarding the HYPE project itself, including partnerships, product launches, or security vulnerabilities, would also be key catalysts. Additionally, macroeconomic factors like inflation rates or interest rate decisions could indirectly influence this market, as they affect overall risk sentiment and investment flows.