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Hungary rate decision in September
kalshi

Hungary rate decision in September

Volume:
$49,120

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,514
N/A
N/A
$4,653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cut more than 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,336
N/A
N/A
$4,482
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,758
N/A
N/A
$3,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,554
N/A
N/A
$3,099
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 25bps

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,551
N/A
N/A
$4,275
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,071
N/A
N/A
$4,024
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 25bps

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,334
N/A
N/A
$2,272
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether the Magyar Nemzeti Bank will maintain the current rate at its September Monetary Council policy meeting, as measured on Kalshi with resolution based on the bank's official announcement. The current probability of maintaining the current rate stands at 35.0%, while cutting 50bps has a probability of 3.0%. The key catalyst to watch will be the official policy announcement scheduled for September 22, 2026.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank at its September Monetary Council meeting. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for 'No change' resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring between scheduled meetings do not affect contract resolution. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate are considered. Each market specifically resolves to Yes only if the central bank takes the exact action described in its primary rule (e.g., cutting or hiking rates by a precise basis point amount, or maintaining the current rate), with all other markets resolving to No.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final decision will be based on the official announcement from the Magyar Nemzeti Bank following its September Monetary Council meeting, and Kalshi will update the market accordingly based on publicly available records.

Key signals that could shift this market include Hungarian inflation data releases, updates on European Central Bank policy direction, domestic employment figures, and any direct commentary from the Magyar Nemzeti Bank governor or policy committee members. Surprise economic shocks, political developments affecting monetary policy expectations, or sharp moves in the euro or regional bond yields may also cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess probabilities in the days leading to Sep 22, 2026.