TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Apr 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether a specific government official will depart from their position as Commerce Secretary before a particular date in 2026. The outcome depends on whether an early departure occurs during the specified timeframe.
Howard Lutnick must have an actual departure date and vacate the Commerce Secretary role within the specified time period for the market to resolve to Yes. Leaving the role qualifies through resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the position—including both voluntary and involuntary early departure. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates and then re-occupies the role, the contract settles on the initial vacation. Death may resolve to the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion, and if the role ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to No.