TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Politics
Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
kalshi

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Volume:
$326,856

Before May 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before May 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Apr 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$111,227
N/A
N/A
$59,257
3mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$44,280
N/A
N/A
$25,944
3mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2026

1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,944
N/A
N/A
$6,880
3mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,401
N/A
N/A
$23,213
3mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$82,384
N/A
N/A
$37,364
3mo 1w 3d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$43,621
N/A
N/A
$31,795
3mo 1w 3d
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks whether a specific government official will depart from their position as Commerce Secretary before a particular date in 2026. The outcome depends on whether an early departure occurs during the specified timeframe.

Kalshi

Howard Lutnick must have an actual departure date and vacate the Commerce Secretary role within the specified time period for the market to resolve to Yes. Leaving the role qualifies through resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the position—including both voluntary and involuntary early departure. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates and then re-occupies the role, the contract settles on the initial vacation. Death may resolve to the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion, and if the role ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to No.