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How much will core PCE increase in Sep 2026?
kalshi

How much will core PCE increase in Sep 2026?

Volume:
$31,145

Above 0.2%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,917
N/A
N/A
$7,445
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,794
N/A
N/A
$1,121
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,991
N/A
N/A
$5,083
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,162
N/A
N/A
$2,460
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,342
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$833
N/A
N/A
$456
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether the month-over-month core PCE inflation rate will exceed 0.4% in September 2026, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The leading outcome—that core PCE will rise above this threshold—currently stands at 98.0%. Resolution will occur following the official release of September 2026 core PCE data, scheduled for late October 2026, which will determine whether monthly inflation in this key measure surpasses the 0.4% level.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the month-over-month percent change in the core PCE Price Index for September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The market contains multiple threshold outcomes (above 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.4%), each resolving independently to Yes if the reported figure exceeds that threshold. The market closes at 8:25 AM ET on the expected data release date and expires at the sooner of 10:00 AM ET following the release or one week after the expected release date.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the core PCE inflation market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the September 2026 core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate. You’ll find the implied probabilities for different percentage ranges, along with a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $10,802, and the total volume traded to date, which is $31,145. This allows you to see how actively traders are engaging with this market and where the most interest lies.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official core PCE inflation rate for September 2026 is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official percentage change in the core PCE price index, as reported by the BEA. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contract aligns with the actual reported value. The market provides a way to forecast this key economic indicator ahead of its official release.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, such as changes to interest rates or quantitative easing programs, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major economic shocks, like geopolitical events or unexpected changes in energy prices, could also influence expectations about future inflation. Additionally, key economic data releases leading up to September 2026—including employment reports, consumer confidence indices, and other inflation measures—will all contribute to how this market evolves. Any news that alters the perceived trajectory of the US economy could move the odds.