TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 13, 12:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the social media activity of an organization over a specific week. It measures how often the organization shares content, either through original posts, quoted material, or reposts, without counting replies. The outcome depends on whether the activity falls within certain thresholds.
The event resolves based on the total number of posts, quote posts, and reposts (excluding replies) made by @wef on X during the period from August 6, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET through August 13, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Counts are determined using the X API, which is called every five minutes, and includes deleted posts if they were captured by the API. The ranges for resolution are inclusive: below 15 times resolves the "Yes" outcome for the first market; 15-24 times for the second; 25-34 times for the third; 35-49 times for the fourth; 50-74 times for the fifth; and above 74 times for the sixth. A third-party tracking page is provided for informational purposes only and does not override the official X API determination.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and qualitative factors, traders react to short-term signals and news flow. This can lead to divergence, especially when new information emerges that shifts market perception before analyst reports are updated.
This market resolves around Aug 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final count of posts will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds to determine which outcome is correct, based on publicly available data at that time.
Key signals that could shift this market include official announcements from the WEF, surges in social media discussions, or any notable activity from high-profile accounts referencing the organization. Unexpected developments — such as policy changes, controversies, or media coverage — may also cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment and market pricing before Aug 13, 2026.