TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 23, 12:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the social media activity of the World Economic Forum's official X account during a specific week in July 2026. The resolution will count all posts, quote posts, and reposts made by @wef during the seven-day period, excluding replies, to determine which activity band the account falls into.
Resolution is determined by counting all posts, quote posts, and reposts from the @wef X account (excluding replies) during the period from Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The count is obtained using the X API, which is queried every five minutes. Deleted posts are included in the count if they are captured by the API before deletion. The activity is categorized into six mutually exclusive bands: fewer than 15 posts, 15-24 posts, 25-34 posts, 35-49 posts, 50-74 posts, or more than 74 posts. All range boundaries are inclusive. While a third-party tracking page (Post Counter) is available as an informational reference tool for users to monitor activity, the official resolution source is exclusively the X API methodology. Any discrepancies between the tracking page and the X API determination will be resolved in favor of the X API data.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders who synthesize available data, historical patterns, and current events to estimate WEF posting behavior. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on limited samples or subjective judgment, this market aggregates dispersed knowledge from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. Analysts might project posting frequency based on past communication patterns, while traders here continuously update odds as new signals emerge. The market price often reveals gaps between expert consensus and crowd expectations, offering an alternative lens on likely outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for different outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders compete to set the equilibrium price, which reflects the aggregate probability of each outcome bracket. The platform displays the current spread between the best bid and ask, allowing participants to execute trades immediately or wait for more favorable pricing. As new information arrives or trading interest shifts, prices adjust dynamically to balance supply and demand across all possible outcomes.
This market resolves around Jul 23, 2026, once the trading week concludes and the final WEF post count can be verified. The outcome is determined by counting official posts published by the World Economic Forum's X account during the specified period, confirmed against credible public sources. Traders should monitor the WEF's social media activity closely as the resolution date approaches, since any surge or lull in posting could shift market expectations in the final hours. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the deadline once the count is finalized.
Major WEF announcements, scheduled conferences, or global economic events could trigger increased posting activity and shift trader expectations upward. Conversely, periods of reduced organizational activity or communication pauses might lower predicted post counts. Breaking news related to geopolitics, markets, or policy could prompt the WEF to amplify its X presence to engage stakeholders. Changes in the organization's social media strategy or staffing could also influence posting frequency. Traders monitoring WEF press releases, event calendars, and real-time post counts will have an edge in anticipating directional moves before resolution.