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How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?
At least 45 million
- Kalshi
At least 45 million - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:16h:08m
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks projected early voter participation for an upcoming national election, using a trusted academic data source to determine whether turnout surpasses various thresholds by a specific cutoff date. It reflects anticipation of civic engagement levels before the official voting period concludes.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the total number of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election as of 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The determining figure comes from the 'Total early votes' value in the National Statistics section of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker displayed at that exact time. If the web page is unavailable, the sum of the voted_all values from the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) as of 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, will be used. No updates published after this cutoff time affect the outcome. Markets with thresholds of 42 million, 45 million, 48 million, 51 million, 54 million, 57 million, and 60 million early votes each resolve to 'Yes' if the reported total meets or exceeds their respective threshold; otherwise, they resolve to 'No'.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the expected level of early voting. While some analysts predict a surge in early votes due to increased voter enthusiasm, this market suggests a more moderate level of participation. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a real-money assessment of probabilities, incentivizing participants to be as accurate as possible. This contrasts with polls and expert opinions, which can be influenced by biases or incomplete information. The market continually updates as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different vote count ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the early midterm vote count. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence in the current pricing, and the spread between the buy and sell prices shows the level of uncertainty.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final tally of early votes cast in the midterm elections is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official vote counts released by state election authorities. The specific vote range that encompasses the actual number of early votes cast will determine the winning outcome in this market. All trading will cease at the resolution time, and contracts will be settled accordingly.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major news events related to voter turnout, such as changes to early voting laws or highly publicized campaigns encouraging early voting, could shift expectations. Unexpected economic data releases or political scandals could also influence voter behavior and, consequently, the market. Furthermore, shifts in traditional polling data, especially if they diverge significantly from the current market price, could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Any developments that alter perceptions of voter enthusiasm or accessibility will likely move this market.
