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How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
polymarket

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

Oct 3, 2026, 11:46 AM EST - Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$16,532
Volume 24h:
$72
28%
Liquidity:
$116,930
11%
Open interest:
$3,371N/A

2

 - Polymarket

2 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 30, 2026

Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?

54%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 54¢ buys you 185 shares | Odds: 54% Total Payout: $185 | Net Profit: $85 Multiplier: 1.85x | ROI: 85% APY not meaningful 38 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

2

Trade
54%
1%
Yes 54¢No 47¢
1¢
$25,680
$5,294
1%
142%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

3

Trade
34%
1%
Yes 35¢No 68¢
3¢
$27,570
$5,669
0%
148%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

1

Trade
7%
Yes 9¢No 95¢
4¢
$20,917
$3,469
0.03%
32%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

4+

Trade
6%
Yes 7.4¢No 96¢
3.4¢
$22,732
$1,101
0%
102%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

0

Trade
4%
Yes 5.8¢No 98.3¢
4.1¢
$20,031
$999
0.1%
143%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US aircraft carrier market tracks the current odds of different outcomes regarding the number of US aircraft carriers stationed in the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility on November 30. You'll find a price history showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $72. Total volume for this market is $16,532. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific prediction market.

Currently, the odds reflected in this market offer a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts on geopolitical deployments. While expert opinions often provide valuable insights, they can be subject to biases or incomplete information. This market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing for a dynamic assessment of probabilities based on real-time information and diverse perspectives. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and those of analysts can highlight areas of disagreement or differing levels of confidence regarding the future number of US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the eventual outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards a consensus view. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the likelihood of a specific number of US aircraft carriers being present in CENTCOM on the target date.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of US aircraft carriers assigned to CENTCOM on November 30 will be determined by official US Department of Defense statements or reports from reputable news sources that consistently cover military deployments. The resolution will reflect the publicly available, verified count of operational US aircraft carriers within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified date and time.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before Dec 1, 2026. Any announcements regarding changes in US military strategy in the Middle East, particularly those concerning naval deployments, would be a key driver. Escalations or de-escalations of regional conflicts, diplomatic developments involving key regional actors, or even unexpected maintenance requirements for aircraft carriers could all influence trader sentiment. Major geopolitical events, such as attacks on shipping or military assets, could also lead to rapid shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.