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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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40,213

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4,340

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How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?
polymarket

How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:24 PM EST - Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,164
Volume 24h:
$20
6%
Liquidity:
$4,487
190%
Open interest:
$715N/A

4-7

 - Polymarket

4-7 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2026

Time left: 06d:05h:56m

Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between November 2-November 8?

53%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 75¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4-7

Trade
53%
3%
Yes 75¢No 70¢
45¢
$395
$1,633
1%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 56m
Active
polymarket

8-11

Trade
33%
3%
Yes 54¢No 89¢
43¢
$480
$726
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 56m
Active
polymarket

<4

Trade
25%
9%
Yes 47¢No 97¢
44¢
$1,241
$311
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 56m
Active
polymarket

12-15

Trade
22%
11%
Yes 35¢No 92¢
27¢
$918
$275
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 56m
Active
polymarket

16+

Trade
19%
11%
Yes 33.8¢No 96.5¢
30.3¢
$1,453
$220
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 56m
Active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before November 2, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 8, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before November 2, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 8, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the UKMTO notice count tracks the implied probability of different outcomes for this market, along with the current trading volume. You can view the price history to see how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour volume indicates recent trading activity. Currently, the total volume for this market is $3,164, with $20 traded in the last day. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of where traders are placing their bets regarding the number of notices issued between November 2nd and November 8th.

It's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to sportsbook odds for this specific event, as sportsbooks typically don't offer markets on the number of UKMTO notices. However, analyzing general geopolitical event predictions reveals that prediction markets can sometimes offer different perspectives than traditional betting venues. This can be due to the different participant bases and information sources used by each. The wisdom of the crowd often leads to unique insights in this market, potentially reflecting specialized knowledge or alternative data sources not readily available to sportsbooks.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Currently, the most likely outcome – fewer than 4 notices – has a chance percentage of 52.5%. The market's price will fluctuate as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, creating a dynamic reflection of collective expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of UKMTO notices published between November 2nd and November 8th will be sourced from official UKMTO publications. The market will settle to the outcome that accurately reflects the official count, as determined by the platform’s process. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand the potential impact on this market.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any significant geopolitical events in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden, such as increased maritime incidents or heightened tensions, could lead to a higher number of UKMTO notices being issued. Conversely, a period of calm and stability could result in fewer notices. News reports regarding naval deployments or security alerts in the region could also impact trading activity. Monitoring these events and their potential effect on maritime security is crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.