How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets price in real-time trader conviction and incorporate information beyond survey snapshots. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets reflect ongoing expectations about primary outcomes and Trump endorsement dynamics. Traders continuously update positions based on campaign developments, fundraising reports, and endorsement announcements. This makes market odds a forward-looking gauge that can shift faster than polling aggregates, particularly as primary elections approach and voter behavior becomes clearer.

This market resolves on Dec 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by counting the total number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their primary elections across all races through that date. The final count will be verified against official primary results and candidate endorsement records. Only candidates explicitly endorsed by Trump before their primary election are included in the tally. Once all relevant primaries have concluded and results are certified, the outcome matching the actual count will be marked correct and traders holding those contracts will receive payouts.

Key catalysts include primary election results themselves, which directly determine the final count. Polling shifts in races featuring Trump-endorsed candidates can signal changing viability. Campaign announcements, debate performances, and fundraising reports may alter expectations about specific endorsees. Endorsement withdrawals or additions by Trump would change the pool of tracked candidates. Media coverage of primary races and candidate scandals can shift trader sentiment. Turnout patterns and voter preference changes in early states often cascade into expectations for later primaries. Each primary election result narrows uncertainty and typically moves odds toward the actual outcome.