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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?

Volume:
$76,508

20-24

 - Polymarket

20-24 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 4:18 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20-24

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30-34

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,819
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25-29

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,486
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of ships transiting this vital waterway the week of September 14. You can view the implied probability of each possibility, along with the total volume traded, currently at $76,300, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,655. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on the collective predictions of other participants. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the market is evolving.

Currently, there aren’t directly comparable sportsbook odds for this specific market, as sportsbooks typically don't offer wagers on shipping traffic. However, it’s useful to consider expert forecasts and geopolitical analysis regarding potential disruptions in the region. These sources often provide estimates of shipping activity, which can be compared to the predictions reflected in this market. Discrepancies between the market price and these external forecasts could indicate areas of disagreement or overlooked factors influencing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned to that outcome by all traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of various ship transit counts. The current volume suggests significant interest in this geopolitical event, and the price movements reflect the market's evolving expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz during the specified week will be determined by data collected from recognized maritime tracking services and publicly available shipping data. This data will be assessed to establish the actual number of transits, and that figure will be used to determine which outcome in this market is the winner. The resolution will be based on objective, verifiable data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions between regional powers or attacks on shipping vessels, could lead to disruptions and a decrease in transit numbers. Conversely, a period of calm and increased oil demand might result in higher traffic. Major weather events, like severe storms, could also temporarily halt or slow down shipping. Any significant news regarding Iranian naval activity or changes in international shipping routes would likely cause fluctuations in this market as traders adjust their predictions.