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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

Volume:
$30,126

20-24

 - Polymarket

20-24 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:57 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20-24

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25-29

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,274
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-34

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,985
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40+

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,771
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of ships transiting this vital waterway during the week of October 19. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $383. The total volume traded on this market is $30,101. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on how others are pricing the event.

It's important to note that traditional sportsbooks don't typically offer markets on this type of geopolitical event, so a direct comparison isn’t possible. However, you can compare the implied probabilities from this market to those of expert forecasts or polls regarding shipping activity and regional stability. If analysts predict a certain range of ship transits, you can assess whether this market's odds align with or diverge from those expectations, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes. This market provides a forward-looking view based on collective intelligence.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final number of ship transits. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the odds will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes. The current probabilities are driven by traders’ assessments of geopolitical risks, shipping schedules, and other relevant factors.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz during the specified week will be determined by data from recognized maritime tracking services and official port authorities. This ensures an objective and transparent resolution process, reflecting the actual shipping activity that occurred during the relevant timeframe. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, such as conflicts or increased military presence, would likely drive down the probability of higher ship transit numbers. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or easing of sanctions could increase confidence and push the odds higher. Major disruptions to global shipping routes, weather events impacting transit times, or significant changes in oil prices could also influence trading activity. Monitoring news related to regional security, maritime traffic, and global trade is crucial for understanding potential market movements.