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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

Volume:
$34,158

25-29

 - Polymarket

25-29 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25-29

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,602
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

40+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-34

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35-39

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of ships transiting this vital waterway during the week of October 12. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how the odds have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4,509. This provides a real-time view of where traders stand on this prediction. Total volume for this market is $34,158.

Currently, there are no readily available sportsbook odds directly comparable to this market’s specific question about ship transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz. Traditional sportsbooks typically focus on events with clear winners and losers, while this market explores a quantitative outcome. However, you could compare the implied probability of a certain range of ships transiting to expert forecasts or analysis from maritime intelligence firms, which often provide estimates of shipping traffic. These external sources may offer a different perspective on the likelihood of various outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz during the week of October 12 will be determined by reviewing official maritime data and reports from recognized authorities in shipping and logistics. The outcome will reflect the actual count of vessels passing through this critical shipping lane during the specified timeframe, as documented by these sources.

Several factors could influence this market before its resolution. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions in the region or disruptions to oil production, could significantly impact shipping traffic. Weather conditions, including severe storms or blockages, could also affect the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Unexpected changes in global oil demand or supply, or major incidents involving tankers, could also shift the market’s probabilities. Any news related to maritime security or trade routes will likely be closely watched by traders in this market.