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417,059

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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?

Oct 28, 2026, 5:25 PM EST - Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,901
Volume 24h:
$84
320%
Liquidity:
$2,137
89%
Open interest:
$855N/A

25-29

 - Polymarket

25-29 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2026

Time left: 06d:05h:04m

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?

47%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 78¢ buys you 128 shares | Odds: 47% Total Payout: $128 | Net Profit: $28 Multiplier: 1.28x | ROI: 28% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25-29

Trade
47%
13%
Yes 78¢No 85¢
63¢
$292
$909
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 4m
Active
polymarket

20-24

Trade
38%
5%
Yes 69.9¢No 94.5¢
64.4¢
$402
$205
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 4m
Active
polymarket

30-34

Trade
37%
8%
Yes 68¢No 94¢
62¢
$263
$214
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 4m
Active
polymarket

35-39

Trade
35%
8%
Yes 66¢No 97¢
63¢
$296
$353
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 4m
Active
polymarket

<20

Trade
33%
17%
Yes 59.9¢No 94.8¢
54.7¢
$309
$369
6%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 4m
Active
polymarket

40+

Trade
13%
7%
Yes 23¢No 98¢
21¢
$575
$850
8%
N/A
N/A
6d 5h 4m
Active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of ships transiting this crucial waterway during the week of November 2. You can see the implied probability of each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $69. The total volume traded on this market is $2,901. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on the collective predictions of other participants.

Currently, there are no directly comparable sportsbook odds available for this specific event – the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This is because traditional sportsbooks typically don’t offer markets on logistical or geopolitical events of this nature. Therefore, this market provides a unique opportunity to express views on this specific outcome. The implied probability from Polymarket’s trading reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering insights different from those available through conventional polling or expert analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of different ship transit counts. The current top outcome, ‘Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?’, has a chance percentage of 46.5%.

This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz during the specified week will be determined by data from recognized maritime tracking services and publicly available shipping data. The outcome will be based on the total number of vessels passing through the strait between November 2nd and November 8th, inclusive. This market aims to predict a specific logistical event based on openly available information.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions in the region or disruptions to shipping lanes, could lead to a decrease in ship traffic. Conversely, a period of calm and increased global trade could result in higher transit numbers. Unexpected weather events, like severe storms, could also temporarily halt or delay shipping. Any major news regarding oil prices or global supply chains could also impact expectations about shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially shifting the odds in this market.