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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?

Volume:
$89,454

<25

 - Polymarket

<25 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2.8¢
N/A
$38,223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25-49

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,061
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

75-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket differ fundamentally from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. For shipping events like Strait of Hormuz transits, prediction markets often reflect real-time geopolitical and logistical data more dynamically than static sportsbook lines. Analysts and shipping industry observers may publish forecasts independently, but prediction market odds represent decentralized consensus rather than a bookmaker's calculated spread. This makes them particularly useful for niche events where traditional betting markets don't operate.

On Polymarket, this event is priced as a categorical outcome market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different transit ranges—for example, the 25–49 ships outcome currently reflects market sentiment. Each outcome's price (between 0 and 1) represents the probability traders assign to it. As new shipping data, geopolitical developments, or sanctions announcements emerge, traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. The market resolves based on verified transit counts during the June 8–14 period, with the winning outcome paying out and others expiring worthless.

The market resolves on Jun 14, 2026, marking the end of the June 8–14 observation window. Resolution is determined by the actual number of commercial and naval vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz during that week. Official shipping data, maritime tracking services, and geopolitical reports typically provide the basis for final counts. The outcome corresponding to the verified transit count is declared the winner, and traders holding shares in that outcome receive their payout. Delays in data confirmation may extend resolution slightly beyond the end date.

Several catalysts could shift odds before Jun 14, 2026. Geopolitical tensions, new sanctions, or military incidents in the Persian Gulf region directly affect shipping confidence and routing decisions. Announcements from OPEC, Iran, or the U.S. regarding energy policy or maritime security can trigger rapid repricing. Seasonal demand for oil and liquefied natural gas influences transit volume. Piracy alerts, port closures, or insurance rate changes also influence shipping patterns. Real-time vessel tracking data and shipping industry reports released during the week will provide concrete signals that traders incorporate into their positions, potentially moving market odds significantly.