TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?

Volume:
$88,200

25-49

 - Polymarket

25-49 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 7, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25-49

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.9¢
N/A
$21,945
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<25

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

75-99

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,345
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1? event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of each outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $25,906. The dashboard updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the collective market forecast for maritime traffic through this critical chokepoint during the specified week. Use it to monitor shifting sentiment and liquidity as the resolution date approaches.

Prediction markets like Polymarket differ fundamentally from sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. For maritime events like Strait of Hormuz transits, prediction markets often reflect real-time shipping data and geopolitical analysis more dynamically than traditional sportsbooks, which rarely offer such specialized transportation outcomes. Comparing the two reveals how decentralized markets price niche events versus conventional betting venues.

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by official maritime traffic data for the Strait of Hormuz during the week of June 1, typically sourced from shipping registries, port authorities, or recognized maritime tracking services. The outcome is the total count of vessels that transited the strait during that seven-day window. Once verified data is published and the resolution criteria are met, the market settles and winning shares are paid out accordingly.

Several catalysts could shift market odds before resolution. Geopolitical tensions or military incidents in the Persian Gulf may deter shipping traffic. New sanctions or trade policy announcements affecting Iran or regional commerce could reduce transits. Conversely, easing tensions or increased global oil demand might boost vessel counts. Seasonal shipping patterns, weather disruptions, or port congestion also influence transit volumes. Real-time shipping data releases and analyst forecasts will provide concrete signals that traders incorporate into prices as June 1 approaches.