TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 7, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Prediction markets like Polymarket differ fundamentally from sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. For maritime events like Strait of Hormuz transits, prediction markets often reflect real-time shipping data and geopolitical analysis more dynamically than traditional sportsbooks, which rarely offer such specialized transportation outcomes. Comparing the two reveals how decentralized markets price niche events versus conventional betting venues.
The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by official maritime traffic data for the Strait of Hormuz during the week of June 1, typically sourced from shipping registries, port authorities, or recognized maritime tracking services. The outcome is the total count of vessels that transited the strait during that seven-day window. Once verified data is published and the resolution criteria are met, the market settles and winning shares are paid out accordingly.
Several catalysts could shift market odds before resolution. Geopolitical tensions or military incidents in the Persian Gulf may deter shipping traffic. New sanctions or trade policy announcements affecting Iran or regional commerce could reduce transits. Conversely, easing tensions or increased global oil demand might boost vessel counts. Seasonal shipping patterns, weather disruptions, or port congestion also influence transit volumes. Real-time shipping data releases and analyst forecasts will provide concrete signals that traders incorporate into prices as June 1 approaches.