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2,782,936,628

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$1,735,667,054

505,688

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2,849

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

Volume:
$13,098

190-209

 - Polymarket

190-209 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 11:17 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

190-209

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,667
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

170-189

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,981
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<170

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

230+

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 5, 2026, through October 11, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 5, 2026, through October 11, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of ships transiting the strait during the week of October 5. You can view the price history, which shows how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume, indicating how much trading activity is occurring. Currently, the total volume for this market is $13,098 and the 24-hour volume is $5,620. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities.

Comparing prediction market odds to those offered by sportsbooks or traditional forecasting polls provides a fascinating look at collective intelligence. While sportsbooks primarily cater to entertainment and often incorporate a 'vig' or commission, this market reflects what traders believe will actually happen, based on their own research and analysis. It’s common to see differences in probabilities, especially when complex geopolitical factors, like those influencing shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are at play. This market represents a forward-looking assessment of the situation.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of ships that transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified week will be determined by reviewing data from recognized maritime tracking services and official reports. The outcome will be based on the best available data at the time of resolution, ensuring a fair and accurate assessment of whether the predicted number of transits occurred. This market’s resolution will reflect the actual shipping activity during that period.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, such as attacks on shipping vessels or increased military presence, would likely cause a shift in probabilities. Changes in global trade patterns, particularly related to oil and gas shipments, could also impact the number of transits. Unexpected weather events, like severe storms, could temporarily disrupt shipping routes and influence the market. Any major news regarding the security situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be closely watched by traders.