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$1,884,820,873

413,109

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

Volume:
$22,566

190-209

 - Polymarket

190-209 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:55 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

190-209

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<170

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

170-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

230+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of ships transiting the strait during the week of October 19. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how the odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,126. The total volume traded on this market is $22,277, indicating the level of interest and participation from traders. This allows users to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds for this specific event to those offered by traditional sportsbooks, as sportsbooks generally don’t offer markets on shipping traffic. However, it’s worth considering forecasts from maritime analysts and shipping publications. These sources often provide estimates for vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and comparing those projections to the probabilities reflected in this market can offer insights into whether the prediction market is aligned with expert opinion or anticipating different factors influencing shipping patterns.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome determined by the verified number of ships that transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of October 19, as reported by a credible source of maritime tracking data. The final outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Polymarket once the data is available, and payouts will be distributed accordingly based on the final count.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions or attacks in the Red Sea region, could disrupt shipping routes and reduce the number of transits. Weather conditions, particularly severe storms, could also cause delays or rerouting of vessels. Additionally, changes in global trade patterns or major port disruptions elsewhere could impact shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Any news related to these factors will likely be reflected in the trading activity and price movements of this market.