TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

24H VOL:

$114,507,511

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,782,936,628

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,734,271,890

505,510

Markets across

37,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,851

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

Volume:
$52,229

170-189

 - Polymarket

170-189 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 10:38 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

170-189

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

230+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,041
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<170

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-209

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,315
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of ships transiting the strait during the week of October 12. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $38,653. Total volume for this market is $52,204. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions about where to allocate capital.

Currently, there are no directly comparable sportsbook odds available for the specific question of how many ships will transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in a given week. Traditional sportsbooks don't typically offer markets on this type of logistical data. However, analysts following maritime traffic and geopolitical events in the region have offered estimates, and this market reflects a crowdsourced prediction that often differs from initial expert opinions. The wisdom of the crowd can sometimes provide a more accurate forecast than individual assessments, making this market a unique source of information.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different scenarios.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of October 12 will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking data and reported by recognized authorities in shipping and logistics. The outcome will be the integer count of vessels passing through the strait during that specific timeframe, and the market will settle based on that verified figure.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions in the Red Sea or attacks on commercial shipping, could lead to rerouting of vessels and a decrease in transits. Conversely, a period of calm and increased global trade could result in more ships using the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Weather conditions, particularly severe storms, could also temporarily disrupt traffic. Any major news regarding these factors will likely be reflected in the trading activity and price movements of this market.