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How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?
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How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

Volume:
$187,113

0

 - Kalshi

0 - Kalshi

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 11:31 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49,785
N/A
N/A
$22,180
1mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,800
N/A
N/A
$23,140
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,319
N/A
N/A
$25,886
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,900
N/A
N/A
$24,425
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,309
N/A
N/A
$15,837
1mo 4d
No
Total markets: 5

Description

Democratic Party incumbent senators compete in primary elections in 2026, with the outcome measured before November 3, 2026.

Kalshi

This market resolves based on the total count of Democratic Senate incumbents who lose their primary elections in 2026 before November 3. To qualify, a candidate must be running for re-election to the same Senate seat they currently hold, be running for their current party's nomination, and lose that primary to another candidate. In non-partisan or top-two primary systems, an incumbent who advances to the general election is not considered to have lost, regardless of placement. If concurrent primaries exist for an unexpired term and the next full term, only the full-term primary results count. District changes do not affect eligibility as long as the candidate seeks re-election to the same legislative body.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the question of how many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026 on Kalshi. It displays the current probability of the leading outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $6,102. The dashboard aggregates market depth and liquidity data to show you where traders are positioning themselves on this election outcome. With total group volume of $187,113, this market reflects active trader interest in Democratic primary vulnerabilities heading into the 2026 cycle.

The market resolves on Nov 3, 2026, after the 2026 midterm election cycle concludes and all Senate Democratic primary results are finalized. Resolution hinges on the official count of sitting Senate Democrats who lose their primary contests during the 2026 cycle. This includes any incumbent senator who fails to secure their party's nomination before the general election. The outcome is determined by publicly available election records and will reflect the actual number of Democratic primary defeats across all states holding Senate elections in 2026.

Several factors could shift odds on this market. Announcements of strong primary challengers or retirements would increase the probability of Democratic losses. Shifts in state-level polling, fundraising reports, and endorsement patterns signal incumbent vulnerability or strength. National political dynamics—such as changes in presidential approval or party momentum—affect primary turnout and challenger recruitment. Redistricting outcomes and demographic shifts in key states matter for incumbent security. Additionally, scandals, health issues, or unexpected candidate entries in specific races could trigger repricing. Closer to 2026, actual primary results in early states will provide concrete data that traders will incorporate into final odds.