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How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
polymarket

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?

Volume:
$144,898

7

 - Polymarket

7 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 12:26 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

7

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

6

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$107,898
$39,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<5

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$105,100
$27,438
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$107,152
$24,748
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$55,047
$8,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$105,600
$8,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$54,258
$6,586
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$97,892
$5,549
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$95,764
$2,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity on Polymarket for this political event. It displays the current probability of each outcome—ranging from the number of Republican Senators who will not seek reelection in 2026—along with live price movements, historical odds charts, and $34,335 in 24-hour trading volume. The interface aggregates order-book depth and recent trades to show market sentiment as it evolves, helping traders monitor how expectations shift as new political developments emerge.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect traders' collective expectations about Senate retirements, which often diverge from traditional polling. While polls measure voter sentiment or hypothetical preferences, prediction markets price in real-time signals from political insiders, fundraising data, and retirement announcements. Markets tend to update faster than polls when senators make unexpected retirement decisions. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in higher or lower retirement rates than public surveys suggest, offering insight into information asymmetries between political professionals and the general electorate.

The market resolves on Aug 31, 2026, after the 2026 election cycle concludes and final retirement data is confirmed. Resolution hinges on an official count of Republican Senators who did not run for reelection in 2026, including those who retired, pursued higher office, or were otherwise absent from the ballot. The outcome is determined by verified records from the U.S. Senate and election authorities, ensuring accuracy in the final tally used to settle all contracts.

Direct retirement announcements from sitting Republican Senators are the primary catalyst for price movement. Health crises, scandals, or electoral vulnerability in a senator's home state can trigger unexpected retirements. Broader political shifts—such as changes in party leadership, redistricting outcomes, or shifts in presidential approval—may also influence retirement decisions. Fundraising reports and primary challenges signal whether senators face serious reelection threats. Media coverage of potential retirements and insider reporting from political analysts can move odds as new information reaches traders, making this market highly responsive to real-time political developments.