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405,232

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How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
polymarket

How many Republican House members not running in 2026?

Volume:
$107,868

36–39

 - Polymarket

36–39 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 11:09 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

36–39

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,774
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24–27

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28–31

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<24

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40–43

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

44+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,805
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32–35

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Republican House retirement prediction market on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of each outcome, historical price movements, and trading volume data. The market has generated $107,868 in total volume, with $31,495 traded in the last 24 hours. This dashboard provides traders and political observers with live market sentiment on how many Republican House members will choose not to run for reelection in 2026.

Prediction markets like this one aggregate trader expectations and financial incentives into probabilistic forecasts, which often differ from traditional polling. While polls measure voter sentiment or stated intentions at a single point in time, prediction markets reflect ongoing assessments by participants with real money at stake. For Republican House retirements in 2026, market odds incorporate factors like current political dynamics, historical retirement patterns, and anticipated electoral conditions. These market-derived probabilities typically adjust faster than polls as new information emerges.

The market is scheduled to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the final count of Republican House members who do not run for reelection in the 2026 cycle. This includes members who retire, resign, or pursue other offices rather than seek another House term. The specific outcome range into which the final count falls will determine which shares pay out at full value.

Several factors could shift market odds before resolution. Major political upheaval, changes in party leadership, or shifts in the electoral environment could influence retirement decisions. Announcements by prominent Republican members about their 2026 plans will directly move prices. Economic conditions, approval ratings, and the trajectory of the Biden or successor administration may also affect calculations about seat competitiveness and member incentives to retire. Special elections or unexpected departures could accelerate or dampen retirement waves.