TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of official presidential actions taken by Donald Trump during a specific week in 2026. The outcome depends solely on the actions published on an official government website by a set deadline, regardless of their legal impact.
The event resolves based on the number of presidential actions published on the "Presidential Actions" page of whitehouse.gov between August 30, 2026, and September 5, 2026, as verified at 10:00 AM ET on September 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of actions—from one to fifteen—that must be met for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. Actions qualifying for any threshold include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda, provided they appear on the designated page by the specified time. Publications not uploaded by the deadline, backdated entries, or items listed outside the "Presidential Actions" tab do not count. The resolution hinges exclusively on the visible publication dates and the presence of qualifying items on the page at the exact checking time.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader expectations about the number of presidential actions Trump will take this week. These expectations often diverge from polling averages, which measure public opinion rather than predictive trading activity. Prediction markets like this one incorporate real-time information and betting behavior, allowing for rapid adjustments based on news and events. While polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, this market offers a different perspective focused on actionable outcomes. The contrast between the two can highlight areas where market participants and the general public disagree or converge in their expectations.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through active buying and selling of contracts. The current probability reflects the collective judgment of participants about how many actions Trump is likely to take between 8/30 and 9/5. Volume of $1,923 over the last 24 hours shows trader interest, while the total volume of $28,904 indicates overall market activity. Prices can shift quickly in response to breaking news, official announcements, or changes in political momentum, making this market a dynamic indicator of short-term expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of presidential actions taken by Donald Trump during the specified week will settle the market, reflecting whatever official records and news sources confirm.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves on Sep 6, 2026. Key presidential announcements, executive orders, or major policy decisions made by Trump during the week would directly impact expectations. Media coverage and political commentary may also shift perceptions, especially if they hint at upcoming actions or strategic pauses. Additionally, unexpected developments such as geopolitical events, domestic crises, or legislative interactions could prompt traders to adjust their positions. The market will respond to any information that changes the perceived likelihood of specific actions being taken within the defined timeframe.