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How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?
kalshi

How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

Volume:
$87,302

10 to 24

 - Kalshi

10 to 24 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 1, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

10 to 24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,906
N/A
N/A
$8,898
Settled
Yes
kalshi

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,806
N/A
N/A
$14,575
Settled
No
kalshi

1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,232
N/A
N/A
$13,862
Settled
No
kalshi

3 to 9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,812
N/A
N/A
$8,732
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 249

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,618
N/A
N/A
$5,627
Settled
No
kalshi

100 to 249

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,326
N/A
N/A
$3,235
Settled
No
kalshi

25 to 99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,094
N/A
N/A
$3,924
Settled
No
kalshi

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,509
N/A
N/A
$2,489
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the number of presidential pardons, sentence commutations, and reprieves issued during July 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific range of clemency actions, allowing traders to bet on the volume of executive clemency granted in that month.

Kalshi

This event measures the total number of persons who receive presidential clemency in July 2026, defined as pardons, commutations of sentence, or reprieves granted by the sitting President. Clemency actions are counted individually by person, regardless of whether multiple actions are granted to the same individual. The resolution is determined by the total count falling within one of eight defined ranges: zero persons, exactly one person, exactly two persons, three to nine persons, ten to twenty-four persons, twenty-five to ninety-nine persons, one hundred to two hundred forty-nine persons, or two hundred fifty or more persons. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome. The count includes all official clemency grants announced or effective during the calendar month of July 2026, based on official White House records or announcements.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump pardons market on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for predictions on the total number of pardons issued during July 2026. The dashboard displays current market pricing, 24-hour trading volume of $141, and cumulative liquidity of $87,302, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as new political developments emerge. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective forecast of market participants betting on the final pardon count during that specific month.

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different things: polls capture public opinion at a snapshot in time, while this market aggregates real-money bets on an actual outcome. Market participants often incorporate insider knowledge, historical patterns, and breaking news faster than surveys can update. Comparing the odds here to published analyst expectations or historical pardon rates offers insight into whether traders are pricing in a higher or lower volume than conventional forecasts suggest.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different pardon-count ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the last executed trade and standing bids and asks, updating in real time as new positions are entered. Wider bid-ask spreads typically indicate lower liquidity or higher uncertainty around specific outcomes, while tighter spreads suggest strong consensus among active traders.

This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, once July 2026 concludes and the final pardon count becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the total number of pardons formally issued during that calendar month, confirmed through official government announcements and reputable news reporting. Resolution occurs after the data is finalized and the platform's settlement process is complete.

Major political developments—such as shifts in congressional dynamics, high-profile legal cases, or changes in executive priorities—can significantly influence pardon expectations. Media coverage of potential candidates for clemency, statements from the White House, and historical precedent from previous administrations all serve as price catalysts. Additionally, unexpected legal or political crises could prompt sudden changes in pardon strategy, causing sharp moves in the odds as traders reassess the likely July 2026 total.